tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8442430064359197279.post6905855195542065827..comments2024-03-26T10:03:51.827+13:00Comments on Karl du Fresne: Why weren't they warned?Karl du Fresnehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05054853925940134404noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8442430064359197279.post-3055039413698614562011-03-07T13:32:24.238+13:002011-03-07T13:32:24.238+13:00Karl, you are definitely wrong - there were many ...Karl, you are definitely wrong - there were many warnings, as time went on there was a hope that it wouldn't happen. <br /><br />see http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/aftershocks-warning-cordon-relaxed-3763270 from 7th September<br /><br />"There is however, kind of a rough rule that the biggest aftershock is something like one magnitude unit less than the main shock. So we could be looking at a magnitude six I'm afraid," said Smith.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05932206525640900791noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8442430064359197279.post-57855879217780037702011-03-07T12:56:56.583+13:002011-03-07T12:56:56.583+13:00I recall there being a warning that often a large ...I recall there being a warning that often a large earth quake of magnitude x would be followed by one of x-1.<br /><br />And another warning that an earthquake of magnitude x could be followed by 10x-1's, 100x-2's, 1000x-3's etc.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17254707386930110594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8442430064359197279.post-14229728434229168652011-03-07T11:42:30.786+13:002011-03-07T11:42:30.786+13:00Yes, general warnings were given of aftershocks, b...Yes, general warnings were given of aftershocks, but it's my impression Christchurch wasn't prepared for another quake of that magnitude.Karl du Fresnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05054853925940134404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8442430064359197279.post-76299907346249917462011-03-07T11:03:16.676+13:002011-03-07T11:03:16.676+13:00I also recall several warnings after the Darfield ...I also recall several warnings after the Darfield shock. I dug up one of them:<br /><br />An aftershock of magnitude six was still possible, but Quigley was optimistic it might not occur.<br /><br />"Significant aftershocks, such as the ones we have been feeling ... are likely to continue for weeks to months.<br /><br />"I know this is distressing a lot of you, but I am hopeful that these aftershocks might be the biggest we get. However, they may not be, and we could get a bigger one months from now." <br /><br />http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/canterbury-quake/4109957/More-aftershocks-loom-as-likely-new-fault-joltsWill de Cleenehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03555957698892853110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8442430064359197279.post-469293568745089542011-03-07T11:00:52.638+13:002011-03-07T11:00:52.638+13:00I think you may be mistaken. I recall several warn...I think you may be mistaken. I recall several warnings to that effect, and that it might happen months after the initial event- but agree that we all assumed that their likelihood tapers off.Jim Donovanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03402899145216566360noreply@blogger.com