(First published in the Manawatu Standard and Nelson Mail, Dec 28.)
There have been a few
momentous years in my lifetime. I don’t mean for me personally, although
obviously there have been those too.
I’m referring to years when
you got a sense that history had suddenly lurched in a different direction;
that a new era was starting which would be significantly different from the
previous one.
There was 1968. What a turbulent
year that was.
America seemed a dangerously
unstable place where anything could happen. All the post-war confidence of the
Eisenhower and Kennedy presidencies seemed to have evaporated.
There were the assassinations
of Martin Luther King Jr and Robert Kennedy. It was also the year when public
discontent over the Vietnam War (dubbed the living room war because it was
played out nightly on the television news) seemed to crystallise. Military
setbacks – the Tet Offensive and the siege of Khe Sanh – were a profound shock
to a country that was accustomed to winning.
In Chicago, the protest
movement flexed its muscles at the infamous Democratic Party Convention in
Chicago. To TV viewers watching the vicious police response, it must have seemed the American
Dream was disintegrating before their eyes.
But the unrest wasn’t
confined to America. Capitalism and authority was under attack throughout the
Western world.
In France, student and trade union
street protests brought the country to the brink of revolution. Neo-Marxist
protest leaders – Daniel Cohn-Bendit (aka Danny the Red) in France and Rudi
Dutschke in Germany – became household names worldwide.
The European unrest of 1968 gave
birth to urban terrorist groups such as Germany’s Red Army Faction and Italy’s
Red Brigades. America’s Symbionese Liberation Army – famous for kidnapping
newspaper heiress Patti Hearst – would later emerge from that same ferment of
protest and disorder.
The world had to come to
grips with the new phenomenon of urban terrorism, fomented by alienated middle-class
misfits striking out with extraordinary ferocity against the capitalist society
that had nurtured them.
It was profoundly
destabilising and continued to unsettle the world throughout the 1970s and into
the 1980s. In fact you could argue that it was instrumental in shaping the terrorism-attuned
world we live in now.
Fast-forward now to 1989, an
epochal year in a very different way. That was the year the Berlin Wall came
down and the Soviet empire began to unravel.
At the time – in fact even
now – it scarcely seemed credible that the Soviet Union, which since World War
Two had competed with the US for global domination, should collapse with barely
a whimper, along with its repressive satellite states. But when challenged by
people power, the Soviet bloc, economically exhausted after decades of trying
to out-muscle its ideological enemy, had no fight left.
The American political
scientist and economist Francis Fukuyama famously wrote that the defeat of
Soviet communism represented “the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution”.
In future, he theorised, capitalism and liberal democracy would prevail
unchallenged.
Already that bold prophecy
seems to have been, er, a bit premature. America, so ideologically triumphant
in 1989, is now weakened by self-doubt. The ascendant power is China – a
capitalist country all right, but hardly a liberal democracy.
Russia, meanwhile, is again a
force to be reckoned with – just not a communist one. Nonetheless, 1989 was unquestionably
a watershed year.
So we come to 2016, and I’m
wondering whether it too will turn out to be a year that changed the course of
history.
In a June referendum, 52 per
cent of Britons voted in favour of leaving the European Union. This was a
stunning rejection of a long-established political consensus. Few people saw it
coming.
Voting took place against a
backdrop of unprecedented immigration levels as Europe absorbed millions of
displaced people fleeing insecurity and instability in the Middle East and
Africa.
Many commentators simplistically
interpreted the referendum result as a racist backlash against immigration and
free passage across borders, but the overriding factor was that British people
had grown increasingly resentful of control by a remote and unaccountable elite
in Brussels. They wanted their country back.
But Brexit was merely the
appetiser before an even more cataclysmic political event: the election of
Donald Trump as president of the United States.
This was such a momentous setback
for the liberal agenda that the full consequences will take time to absorb. Some
of those consequences will almost certainly be ugly, but many people will welcome what they
regard as a long-overdue rebalancing in Western politics and culture.
The liberal Left, which has
effectively controlled the political agenda in the West for decades, even when
nominally conservative parties (such as National here, the Liberals in
Australia and the Conservatives in Britain) were in power, is suddenly on the
back foot. Political correctness is in retreat.